Confronting the radical right starts with understanding why people vote for them in the first place. Explanations have often relied on economic background, education, and other surface-level factors, most of these failing, however, to predict radical right vote. In this blog we uncover the deeper motivations for this political leaning, which will help progressives first understand these voters, in order to better engage with them.
We explore the work of Stockemer, Lenz, and Mayer (2018), whose meta-analysis and of research across Europe contradicts these stereotypes. Their critical insights reveal that radical right voters are more diverse and nuanced than commonly perceived, challenging simplistic assumptions that radical right voting can be explained by socio-demographic factors.
Four Types of Radical Right Voters
Stockemer, Lentz, and Mayer identify four distinct right-wing supporter profiles through extensive qualitative research across multiple European countries:
- Revolutionaries: These voters have deep ideological commitments, often influenced by family background. Their support is ideological and steadfast.
- Wanderers: Driven by a desire for political belonging, wanderers do not initially have strong ideological roots but gradually gravitate towards the radical right seeking community and identity.
- Converts: Primarily motivated by grievances, anger, and a sense of injustice, converts support the radical right as a form of political protest or rebellion against perceived unfairness.
- Compliants: Their involvement arises from social ties and peer influences rather than genuine ideological commitment.
Why Do People Vote for the Radical Right?
Crucially, Stockemer, Lentz, and Mayer emphasize that most radical right voters belong to the wanderer and convert categories. Their political preferences are shaped gradually by individual experiences such as economic hardship, distrust in political elites, and perceived unfair competition. Socio-demographic factors alone rarely provide a complete picture, as these voters develop their political leanings through highly personalised cognitive processes.
This complexity is also illustrated through their findings on over 20 variables commonly associated with right-wing voting. Contrary to recurrent assumptions, simplistic demographic predictors often fail to adequately explain radical right support. Anti-immigration attitudes, although frequently cited, successfully predict radical right voting only 51% of the time. Other traditional factors such as low education attainment (33%), blue-collar occupation (35%), being under 35 years old (29%), and even gender (55% success for males) also yield surprisingly low prediction rates. However, less commonly tested variables like nationalism and political discontent show greater predictive promise, underscoring the intricate and multidimensional nature of radical right voter identities and the limitations of purely quantitative approaches.
Strategic Implications for Campaigners
Given this complexity, progressive campaigners should adopt multifaceted approaches to effectively challenge the radical right:
- Understand Personal Grievances: Engage deeply with voters’ individual grievances, especially around economic security, fairness, and trust in institutions. Campaign strategies must address the genuine anxieties and discontent that fuel converts’ and wanderers’ attraction to radical right narratives.
- Community Building and Belonging: Strengthen community ties and create inclusive political spaces where wanderers feel belonging without the radical right’s exclusivist framing.
- Targeted Messaging: Tailor messages specifically addressing personal grievances and highlighting achievable solutions. Recognise that voters driven by anger or economic anxiety respond positively to practical, solution-focused communication rather than broad ideological attacks.
- Challenge Radical Right Narratives Directly: Clearly and persistently debunk radical right myths around immigration, economic competition, and elite conspiracies by presenting well-evidenced counter-narratives grounded in progressive values.
Conclusion
Radical right support cannot be reduced to simple socio-demographic explanations. Progressive campaigners should engage voters through a nuanced understanding of individual motivations and develop tailored strategies addressing the root causes behind radical right support. Effective campaigning requires addressing personal grievances, offering meaningful solutions, and fostering inclusive community spaces, thus undermining the appeal of radical right narratives at their source.
Full paper:
Stockemer, D., Lentz, T., & Mayer, D. (2018). Individual predictors of the radical right-wing vote in Europe: A meta-analysis of articles in peer-reviewed journals (1995–2016). Government and Opposition, 53(3), 569–593. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/government-and-opposition/article/individual-predictors-of-the-radical-rightwing-vote-in-europe-a-metaanalysis-of-articles-in-peerreviewed-journals-19952016/9FB2590C6447C79A732A45DEB59B0AFB