Problem Addressed
Party activists don’t just vote themselves; they live alongside and talk to the people around them. If activists can be motivated before polling day, the effect might spread to their households and neighbourhoods. Campaigns rarely get the chance to test whether this kind of knock-on effect happens in practice.
Approach & Implementation
Campaign Lab worked with a partner party to run a large field experiment at a UK election. Activists in randomly selected areas received a text message shortly before polling day, while activists elsewhere did not. Using official records of who voted, the team compared turnout among activists, the people they live with, and other voters nearby.
Findings
Early analysis points to an effect, but a narrow one. Across the full sample there was no clear change in turnout among activists or their wider neighbourhoods. However, in smaller households there are signs that the message did lift turnout, most likely among the one other person an activist lives with, such as a partner.
Implications for Campaigners
Nudging activists may spread influence, but only to their closest ties rather than out into the wider community. A light-touch message is unlikely to shift turnout on a whole street, but it may reach the people activists are closest to. This points campaigns towards relational approaches built on close personal relationships, and towards testing stronger or more personal ways of mobilising supporters’ networks.
These findings are preliminary. A full paper is forthcoming.